Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

The year 2006 is coming to an end (already). This is my review of the AirTran operations at IND for the year 2006 and my predictions for the year 2007.

This year saw the first westward expansion of AirTran to the west coast from IND. It also saw additional Florida frequencies as well as new seasonal destinations. AirTran made the boost in Florida frequencies for the holiday travel season. In addition to the network expansion AirTran has picked up additional space at the airport. They have added additional ticket counter space, terminal space and tarmac space. AirTran has positioned themselves for growth in 2007.

Next year (2007) should be an interesting year for the airline. In May the service to LAX and SFO returns. Additional seasonal frequences to Orlando and Ft Myers never get reduced. Tampa is also at twice daily service. Ft. Lauderdale and Sarasota also stayed on the schedule through the end of June. They routes AirTran serves from here are very well covered by this point. Additional frequencies to any of the destinations outside of maybe Atlanta seems unlikely. In fact I believe that some of the destinations have too many seats at this point. This is however where i think the change will come.

I look for AirTran to start new destinations in 2007. Look for additions like BWI, LAS and BOS. I would expect 3 to 5 new destinations and as many as a dozen new flights next year. The focus for AirTran will be to fill the extra seats to Florida as well as the seats to SFO and LAX. The routes they pick will serve the Indianapolis market as well as providing connections in the AirTran network. By the end of 2007 I would expect AirTran to serve (including seasonal) 13 to 15 destinations with approximately 30 daily departures.

Member

Joined: 11 Oct 2006
Posts: 248
Location: Lexington ky

that sounds good what about service to newark to cut CO prices

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

I think EWR would be more likely than LGA.

Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

Paintrain wrote:

that sounds good what about service to newark to cut CO prices
A M E N to that!!!! Midweek IND-EWR 7-day fares run over $1,000.

Member

Joined: 15 May 2006
Posts: 728
Location: West Lafayette, IN

I'm just content to sit back and wait to see what happens. Usually when I predict things they don't end up happening anyway.

Site Admin

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 949
Location: Carmel, IN

Whatever happens, I just want some airline to come in and fly IND-EWR to give CO a run for it. I'd probably still fly CO, but it wouldn't cost me 4-figures to do it.

Member

Joined: 11 Oct 2006
Posts: 248
Location: Lexington ky

is there any other airports that any other citys that airtran or nwa could come and drive prices down and still be profitable

Member

Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

THEORY ONE --

I would venture a guess that Miami or Ft. Lauderdale service remains throughout the year instead of seasonal service.

I would venture to guess that service begins to Las Vegas.

I would say two daily Baltimore on the 717 would happen before service into Phoenix. I would not rule Phoenix out entirely but if Northwest couldn't make a go of it, AirTran wouldn't try it. Plus the minute AirTran adds it, Northwest will jump back on it and cancel both of the airlines out.

A summer seasonal fourth daily 717 into Orlando might be possible.


Total increase -- four daily flights over the minimum schedule plus the two daily into Los Angeles and one daily into San Francisco.


THEORY TWO --

Indianapolis becomes an all 737 station.

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

stlgph wrote:

THEORY ONE --

I would venture a guess that Miami or Ft. Lauderdale service remains throughout the year instead of seasonal service.

I would venture to guess that service begins to Las Vegas.

I would say two daily Baltimore on the 717 would happen before service into Phoenix. I would not rule Phoenix out entirely but if Northwest couldn't make a go of it, AirTran wouldn't try it. Plus the minute AirTran adds it, Northwest will jump back on it and cancel both of the airlines out.

A summer seasonal fourth daily 717 into Orlando might be possible.


Total increase -- four daily flights over the minimum schedule plus the two daily into Los Angeles and one daily into San Francisco.


THEORY TWO --

Indianapolis becomes an all 737 station.

Well FLL is staying year round. I've checked the schedule through late June and that flight is in the schedule. MIA is not. It really makes no sense. MIA and FLL are big for cruise traffic. Summer is the busy season for cruises. And that is when MIA isn't in service. Go figure.

PHX was a seasonal route for NW. When they were running it the flights were packed. It wasn't a high fare route but they were getting more on the nonstop than they were with connections. It was a poor yielding route but their connections made it worse.

I think LAS is very likely due to the limited number of seats on the route with the high demand. DFW perhaps another. AA has a monopoly.

Do you think this market could support a total of 7 flights a day to MCO? It would be 4x with FL, 2x with NW and 1x with WN if FL went to 4x daily.

I'd say for the best routing in the network: LAS, DFW, BWI, BOS.

What do you think about the likes of MSP? Or would that just be asking for a huge war?

Member

Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

In the past there was nonstops to Orlando on Southwest, US Airways, Delta Express, and toss in a handful on ATA.

AirTran could do a fourth daily into Orlando, if not just offer a fourth daily on Sundays and Saturdays during peak season.

Member

Joined: 15 May 2006
Posts: 728
Location: West Lafayette, IN

IMHO FL would probably have a hard time with MSP. Because, a) NW has a monopoly on the route and b) I'd assume most MSP pax are connecting on NW flights anyway.

AirTran Reporter

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 341
Location: Indianapolis

I think FL will start BWI service inext year and will announce it in the next month or so. After that they might as well as add MDW and really piss off WN

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

IND-MDW would help AirTran at both airports in my opinion.

AirTran Reporter

Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 341
Location: Indianapolis

I think so also. If they had a few flights per day between IND-MDW then they can have some connection opportunities. It could help especially since MDW virtually has no more room.

Member

Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 333
Location: St. Louis, MO

I could see them potentially running Chicago - Indy - one stops into Miami or Ft. Lauderdale, although that would be "new" for them. I think they are trying to avoid a Southwest style operation like that.

Member

Joined: 11 Oct 2006
Posts: 248
Location: Lexington ky

what if they add a few more west coast destionations like las and if they ever enter san or pdx and indy got service would they add day

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

stlgph wrote:

I could see them potentially running Chicago - Indy - one stops into Miami or Ft. Lauderdale, although that would be "new" for them. I think they are trying to avoid a Southwest style operation like that.

They already have 1 stops in their schedule. For example I pulled up IND/MCO on May 15th and flight 849 is a 1 stop to Orlando. They had an IND-CLT 1 stop before as well. Don't know how many other 1 stops they run. They don't advertise direct service or anything like that but 1 stops on occasion are available.

Site Admin

Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

I noticed that starting May 18th and running for about 4 weeks AirTran will be running 3x daily to TPA. Any idea why they would do this for a month?

Member

Joined: 11 Oct 2006
Posts: 248
Location: Lexington ky

are there a lot of race fans in tampa thats the only thing that i can think of