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Indy

Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2005 05:59:32 pm

Indy
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Location: Indianapolis, IN

The Indianapolis Star reports that for the first half of 2005 the Indianapolis International Airport has served 4.34 million passengers which an increase of 11.2% over the record setting year of 2004 where 8 million passengers were served.

Source: http://www.indystar.com/apps/p...D=/20050812/BUSINESS/508120558
Story by: Associated Press

"Indianapolis International Airport saw an 11.2 percent increase in the number of passengers for the first half of 2005 over the same period last year, airport officials said today.

A record of more than 4.34 million passengers passed through the airport from January through the end of June.

Officials had worried that the bankruptcy of Indianapolis-based ATA would cause a drop in traffic and perhaps force a scaling back of the airport's ongoing $1 billion expansion project.

The midyear figures, however, show that the airport is on pace to top last year's record of 8 million-plus passengers."

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stlgph

Posted: Sun Aug 21, 2005 05:07:32 am


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this makes you just wanna slap the morons at ATA for messing this opportunity up.

Indy

Posted: Sun Aug 21, 2005 05:00:17 pm

Indy
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Location: Indianapolis, IN

I've always thought Southwest was behind their move to pull out. Their moves in a couple month perior were so wild an irrational there was no explaining them except an outside influence.

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Boofer

Posted: Sun Aug 21, 2005 06:00:33 pm

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So what accounts for the 11.4% increase in o&d traffic? The IATA says that passenger traffic worldwide was up 8.7% January through April. But the Air Transport Association estimates U.S. passenger growth at 4.1%. So an 11.4% increase is quite the achievement.

To be conservative (and to make the arithmetic easier), let's just say that 2005 growth ends up at 10% for the year. Last year saw 8 million pax at IND (which, by the way, is more than 4 times as many people as live in the 9-county metro area). 10% growth means 800,000 more passengers used IND.

You could figure some of the 10% is the generally healthy economy leading to people choosing to fly more than in the past year. But that probably only accounts for about 4% (320,000 pax) the same as U.S. average pax growth. So what about the other 6% growth? That's 480,000 more people using IND than last year on an annualized basis. If IND were just growing along with all the airports in the U.S. at the average 4% rate, then it wouldn't be an interesting question. But something is making people choose to fly nearly half a million more times out of IND than the general "rising tide" would cause.

I propose that it's two things. One - growth in incoming visitors due to the many events we've had here in Indy. NCAA women's basketball. Big conventions, like the performance racing deal and CEDIA, that happen every year and drew record crowds this year. New conventions, like the Star Wars one (don't laugh - those folks spent lots of $$ here!) and the GenCon thing going on this weekend, and the museum curators deal a couple of months ago. The tennis tournament. The gymastics championships. Black Expo drew record crowds this year (heck even the Prez came for that one!) The three races, of course. Indy "tourism" is way up this year. And don't forget, we've still got the Solheim Cup this year and a few other big events.

Two - continued drawing of pax from surrounding areas, especially central and southern IL; small Indiana airports like HUF, EVV, FWA, and maybe SBN; and especially from western and southwestern Ohio. I think two things have accelerated this phenomenon - continued and increased availability of low-cost fares (despite the TZ meltdown) and the addition of all the nonstop NW service. AirTran coming in certainly helped, particularly since they don't serve STL, SDF (Louisville), or CVG (Cincy). And for someone who's closest airport is CVG, the NW nonstops give another reason to fly out of IND (gee, I could drive to IND and save $50 on my flight, but I'd have to connect. So I'll just fly out of CVG. Wait a minute, I can now fly nonstop out of IND AND save $50? Done!)

That's my completely speculative guess as to what's behind the "greater than average" growth at IND. But if I'm right about the reasons for this excess growth, then there are some things on the horizon that will start to limit that growth. Convention attendance is going to hit a peak sometime soon, as the convention center is full to capacity. The two largest conventions (performance racing industry and CEDIA) are leaving Indy sometime in the near future and won't be back until the convention center is expanded in 2010. So that engine of IND pax growth will stall. While we will have other big events in Indy, this may start to limit IND pax growth in 2007-8.

Also, when the new terminal opens, the PFC goes up to $10.50. We've discussed it on the board already. It doesn't seem like much, but it may make IND just a little less competitive, such that some pax who are driving to IND to save a buck won't be as easily enticed to do so anymore. I'd love to see IND serve 10 million pax by 2010; that will require something around 5% growth annually for the next 4 years. Who knows?


By the way, IND's figures of 8 mm pax counts boardings and arrivals. So if you take a flight ex-IND, you're counted once when you leave and once when you return. The FAA calculates only boardings when measuring pax traffic at an airport. Their figure for 2004 was 3,992,097 boardings, making IND the 45th-busiest airport in the U.S., and classified as a "Medium Hub" airport. Medium means IND boards between 0.25% and 1% of all the boardings in the U.S. There are 37 Medium Hub airports in the country, ranging from OAK, PIT, PDX, and STL with over 6mm pax each, down to Omaha, Norfolk, and Tuscon with just under 1.9mm each. Of all the Medium Hub airports, IND's growth rate was 11th fastest, the leader being RDU (10.99%) and the loser being STL (-35.76%).

Interestingly, growth at Large Hubs averaged 9.8% last year, while growth at Medium Hubs aveaged only 2.59%. We might see these growth rates converge as airlines start offering more point-to-point service in coming years. Total pax growth in the U.S. last year was right at 8%, with 702 mm people boarding planes. IND had 0.568% of the boardings in the country.

OK, I'm going to stop typing now. Razz

Can I get a peanut crumb with that thimble of Coke?

Boofer

Posted: Sun Aug 21, 2005 07:31:52 pm

Boofer
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OK, I know I said I'd stop typing, but I'm bored and found some of this FAA data interesting.

I took a look at all the airports "adjacent" to IND. That is, airports that offer commercial airline service for which there are no other commercial airports between it and IND. These were CVG (Cincy), SDF (Louisville), DAY (Dayton), SBN (South Bend), FWA (Ft Wayne), EVV (Evansville), and CMI (Champaign). From each of these airports, if one were to drive toward IND, you wouldn't pass another commercial airport before you reached IND. CMH (Columbus, OH), on the other hand, isn't "adjacent" because you'd pass DAY on the way to IND.

So anyway, I took a look at the FAA boardings numbers for those 7 airports plus IND. In 2004, the total boardings at all 8 airports were 19,082,941, which was a 5.43% increase from 2003. CVG had 56.87% of the boardings among these IND-adjacent airports, but their "share" was down by 0.86 points from 2003. IND's share was second-most at 20.92% of the market, but IND's share grew by 0.62 points from 2003. Dayton's share was fourth-most at 7.56% and grew 0.34% from 2003. So it certainly looks as though IND and DAY have been drawing pax from CVG.

Airport IND-Adjacent Share Change 2003-04
CVG 56.87% -0.86%
IND 20.92% +0.62%
SDF 9.02% -0.14%
DAY 7.56% +0.34%
SBN 2.08% -0.15%
FWA 1.72% +0.10%
EVV 1.20% 0.00
CMI 0.62% +0.08%

Looking at all eight airports, it certainly does seem that of all the growth in boardings in the vicinity of IND, our airport is certainly getting a large chunk of that growth. This analysis isn't strictly valid, of course, because it assumes that the market for all the other airports is limited to the 8 airports listed. But it does provide a measure of relative growth at these airports, and IND is clearly outpacing all the others.

In other words, of all the people flying out of these 8 airports in 2003 and 2004, IND drew more of the increase in passenger boardings than the others. But it doesn't mean that IND attracted more raw numbers of passengers in this period, just that it captured more of the growth relative to its position in this "market" than the other airports did. Among all 8 airports, almost 1 million more people boarded planes between 2003 and 2004 (982,844). If IND had drawn it's "share" of that growth, they would have added only about 200,000. But they added much more than that, and thus increased their share.

So now we can put IND's growth in perspective. In all, CVG, SDF, and SBN lost share - they drew a smaller percentage of the increase in passenger traffic than the share they had before. (SBN actually had a net decrease in pax boardings - the only airport of the 8 to do so). IND and DAY increased their share the most, with FWA and CMI just nudging up, and EVV keeping exactly the same market share.

OK, now I'm really done. Razz Razz Razz

Can I get a peanut crumb with that thimble of Coke?

Indy

Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 04:56:59 am

Indy
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Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

Very good writing. You are on the money with the two points you made. The growth in the local economy driving more traffic and the point of pulling pax away from surrounding areas because of great fares. There is a 3rd factor at play and that is connecting passengers because of the NW focus city/mini hub they are running here. I have no idea though that percentage those make up.

I think growth may flatten out in 2007 and most of 2008 until the new airport opens simply because the current facility will be badly over crowded by the end of 2007 and in to 2008. It will get to the point that people will rather pay more and fly out of somewhere else than deal with the mess at IND. However I think the traffic will shoot up when the new terminal opens because of its newness. A $5 or $6 increase in fees per passenger won't be that big of a deal because taxi times will be greatly reduced. You also have to factor in inflation as well. So whats $5 or $ 6 more a ticket for passengers 3 years from now? I don't think it will be much of a factor especially if the recently reduced landing fees stay put. I think this will encourage airlines to increase their schedules here and the increased landings will compensate for the reduced fees for the airport.

In the next 5 years the city will see the opening of a new airport, football stadium, 5 star hotel, corporate hq for Simon and a huge central library project. Plus I believe there will be a mega mall built across the highway from the new airport as well. I am also guessing that shortly after 2010 the city should be able to get its first Super Bowl. Oh I also forgot to mention that the NCAA deal kicks in and the city will host a hoops final four ever 2 years (alternating mens and womens). Plus of course we have the 3 major international races (for now its 3). Right now that gives the city 3 of the 5 largest sporting events in the nation. Hosting a Super Bowl would in certain years give Indianapolis 4 of the top 5 with only Daytona making it in with the Daytona 500.

All we need now is a theme park.

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Boofer

Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:57:33 pm

Boofer
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NW didn't really set up IND as a mini-hub; i.e., they don't intend on people making connections. I believe the only routes they list with stops in IND are those where the plane continues on to the next destination under the same flight number. For example, DCA-AUS is flight 4789, which is a Pinnacle CRJ that flies DCA-IND and then continues on IND-AUS about 45 minutes later. But NW doesn't have a routing AUS-DCA that includes a stop in IND. Likewise, one can fly MCI-BOS on a Pinnacle CRJ, flight 4786. This goes MCI-IND, stops for 55 minutes, and then goes on IND-BOS. But the reverse route, BOS-MCI, doesn't offer a stop in IND.

Still, you've got a valid point about transiting pax on the NW service. I'm not sure if the FAA counts continuing pax under the same flight number as an additional "boarding" though.

And I agree that the outlook for major events in Indy is really good. But unfortunately, the NCAA deal only gets us the Men's Final Four once every 5 years, with the Women's FF once every five years in different years. We get regionals or semifinals in the other 3 years of every 5-year cycle, plus at least one additional NCAA championship each year and the NCAA convention some number of times. It still adds up to a lot of visitors and a lot of $$ for this town.

Can I get a peanut crumb with that thimble of Coke?

Indy

Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 04:12:49 pm

Indy
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Location: Indianapolis, IN

I'm not talking about same flight service. When NW got heavy into their buildup here they were offering promotions for people flying to, from or through IND. Look at the NW schedule on nwa.com . Search in December when the schedule is back up to full strength again. You'll find a large number of city pairs with connection opportunities in IND.

MCO to IND on 823 then IND to LGA on 148
MCO to IND on 823 then IND to LAS on 153
LAS to IND on 152 then IND to TPA on 1078
LAS to IND on 152 then IND to RDU on 4758
MCI to IND on 2908 then IND to BOS on 4786

This is just a small sample. There are many other pairs that come up in the NW reservation system. Just plug in different pairs and look at all the connecting flights here.

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Boofer

Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 03:14:48 pm

Boofer
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Wow. I didn't realize that. I did some cursory searching with the ITA search tool when the summer schedule was in full swing, and I didn't find any connections other than the continuing flights. But you're right I searched in Dec and found IND connections for LAS-BOS and others. Certain city pairs don't show up with IND as a connection, but many do.

So while I'm doubtful the FAA data include pax on continuing flights, I'm sure it does include pax on connections. That's why CVG had 10.8 million boardings - because of all the DL connections there. So a pax flying from IND to JAX via CVG will count as one boarding at IND and one at CVG. Then the return gets one boarding at JAX and one at CVG. So major connecting hubs (when a pax flies via the same hub roundtrip) get two FAA boardings for every one boarding at the o&d airports. That's what really puts an airport in the big leagues in terms of FAA-measured boardings. Of the top 30 airports, 26 are transit hubs of one sort or another, some are major international or domestic o&d airports in their own right, and some are both. The smallest of these is DCA, with 7.66 million boardings, and also a US hub. Here are the others.

ATL - DL hub, FL (Airtran) hub
ORD - UA hub, AA hub, international
LAX - major international transpacific airport, UA hub?
DFW - AA hub, soon to be former DL hub
DEN - UA hub, F9 (Frontier) hub
LAS - HP (Am.West) hub, major domestic destination
PHX - HP hub
JFK - major international airport, DL hub, Jet Blue hub
MSP - NW hub
IAH - CO hub
DTW - NW hub
EWR - CO hub, some international
SFO - major transpacific, UA mini-hub
MCO - FL hub, DL hub, major domestic destination
MIA - AA hub, international
SEA - NW hub, Alaska hub
PHL - US hub
BOS - US hub, some international
CLT - US hub
LGA - US hub, major domestic
IAD - UA hub, FlyI hub
CVG - DL hub
BWI - former US hub, now I guess it's mostly WN and other discounters?
FLL - major domestic vacation destination
HNL - CO hub (for CO Micronesia), major domestic vacation, lots of international
MDW - TZ and WN hubs, major domestic
SLC - DL hub
TPA - not sure what drives TPA's numbers other than major domestic
SAN - also not sure about San Diego other than major domestic
DCA - US hub


The next group, which the FAA considers "medium hub" airports, includes IND, but only 5 of of 37 that you'd consider hubs in the traditional airline hub-and-spoke sense.

OAK
PIT - soon-to-be former US hub
PDX
STL - AA hub, but definitely not a growing hub
CLE - CO "domestic" hub
SJC
MEM - NW "domestic" hub
SJU
MCI - a sort of "focus city" for Midwest
MSY
SMF
SNA
RDU
BNA
IND
HOU - you could consider this a WN "hub"
AUS
SAT
BDL
ONT
PBI
MKE - NW focus city, full hub for Midwest
RSW
ABQ
CMH
DAL - gee, I guess if I'm going to give WN a hub at HOU, I'd have to give them one at Love Field as well
PVD
OGG
JAX
RNO
BUR
ANC - technically a hub for Alaska airlines, although I think they only admit to having one hub at SEA
BUF
MHT
OMA
ORF
TUS

So if, as you said, NW schedules more flights at IND that can be used as connections, IND moves up the list. Doubtful it would ever get into the big leagues on the top list, but certainly more boardings means more revenue for the airport and a higher profile for the city.

Can I get a peanut crumb with that thimble of Coke?

Indy

Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 05:32:35 pm

Indy
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Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

Connecting in IND right now wouldn't be pleasant in my opinion. It will most likely involve two long taxis and sitting in an old and overcrowded concourse. You can venture outside the concourse but depending on the time of day you could face a 30+ minute wait in the security line to get back in.

Don't know why that system didn't show connections this summer. I think part of the problem is most of the flights are full and connections aren't possible. The reason they show up in the fall and winter is because there are open seats on the flights. There have been connection opportunities in the bunches since I started checking this back around December 04 and January 05. I'd like to see what NW does with the schedule once the mechanics strike is settled.

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