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Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

Starting November 21st AirTran will fly 5 daily nonstop flights on the weekend to Orlando. Ft. Myers goes to 5 daily nonstop flights starting November 7th (weekends). I checked this through late March and the increased weekend service remains.

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Joined: 28 Apr 2008
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Will they ever bring back LAS, LAX or SFO?

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Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

I think much of it will depend on what they do with MKE. If I had to guess I'd say those routes will return along with additional western routes. My guess is that with the rebirth of Midwest Airlines under the control of Republic the MKE plans will change. Given the almost total absence of west coast service the odds are someone will add the routes. Right now to me the logical candidate seems to be AirTran. If they do continue to build up service here you'll certainly see those three routes and possibly seasonal service to places like SEA and PHX. Also I think eastern routes like BOS are possible with that being a big market with no mainline service.

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Joined: 28 Apr 2008
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Indy has lost quite a bit of its west coast routes. PHX and SEA would be pretty logical routes to add, as well as SAN and possibly PDX. The latter two cities have been the subject of rumors for sometime now. If I'm reading your post correctly, do you think Air Tran will beat a slow retreat from MKE because of the rebirth of Midwest and shift some operations to IND in an attempt to compete with Republic/Frontier?

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Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

I think MKE will survive through summer of 2010 but that will be the end of it. I believe 2 of their gate leases expire sometime around then. I do not believe they will renew those leases. Unless something completely unforeseen happens here like NW/DL suddenly rebuilding the focus city then I expect AirTran to shift those MKE flights to IND where competition on the west coast routes is thin to non existent.

I honestly do not believe Republic/Frontier will be an issue here. While I do not believe DEN is going to work out for Frontier into the future (DEN cannot support 3 hubs) I do not think they are going to expand here. I think the focus will be MKE where Midwest and Frontier will team up to beef up the existing Midwest hub.

It will be all about who blinks first. Denver cannot support 3 hubs and Milwaukee cannot support 2. I think Indianapolis will eventually (2010 or 2011) get one of the hubs. I think the most likely is that we end up with AirTran. If AirTran goes with a full assault in MKE we could in theory end up with Midwest. If AirTran doesn't go with a full assault into MKE and Frontier isn't doing very well in Denver then you could see even more flights shifted to MKE. I think the only way Frontier ends up doing much in IND is if Southwest builds up Denver more and AirTran expands heavily in MKE and not IND making both DEN and MKE unattractive for Republic. I don't think Bedford will keep operating hubs in those cities just because of ego or whatever drives an airline to maintain an unprofitable hub.

Republic has options. And because neither Frontier nor Midwest are very large it makes a move easier. Especially when you shift assets from one hub to another. And if you were to abandon both hubs you'd be moving assets to your hometown. Good luck doing that with a legacy.

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Joined: 28 Apr 2008
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Well put. I have heard that Republic will push to increase flight out of Indy regardless of the competition. I would imagine that if AirTran moves to create an Indy hub, that Republic would increase capacity since they may have more leverage. i.e., Frontier and Midwest.

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Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Posts: 2316
Location: Indianapolis, IN

I don't think Republic would do anything here if AirTran decided to build IND into a hub. Just like MKE I don't think the IND market is worth fighting over.